Israel’s war is at a tipping point – and risks spinning out of control

The Israeli army’s killing of seven international aid workers from the World Central Kitchen serves as a terrible reminder that the Israel-Hamas war has gone on for far too long.
Now is the time to end it with a comprehensive ceasefire agreement, the release of all the hostages, a return of the displaced Gazan population to their towns and villages, and the opening of a land crossing to allow unhindered flow of humanitarian aid. Plans for the rehabilitation of Gaza coupled with a carefully mapped out plan for Palestinian statehood and Israeli normalisation with Arab states must follow suit.
The discontent with Benjamin Netanyahu’s conduct, his prioritising of the outrageous demands of his extreme government – while sacrificing its relationship with its greatest ally, the US, and the wider world – has finally reached a point of no return.
Tensions have been mounting steadily over Israel’s conduct in the war and it would seem the US, in particular, has finally run out of patience. These deaths mark one red line too many that has now been crossed.
The nature and scope of the attack on the aid convoy, after meticulous coordination over the route, where a total of three different vehicles were targeted over some 2.5 kilometres, as the aid workers fled in vain from one vehicle to the other, has proven that the war must end.
This latest incident shows the IDF is not careful enough in its actions. It demonstrates that commanders in the field are not following the rules of engagement as they should.
More than 200 humanitarian workers have been killed in the past six months, according to figures from the UN. The vast majority have been Palestinians, whose deaths have generated far less press coverage than the tragic deaths this week which included three British aid workers.
At the start of war, there was international sympathy with Israel over the horrific attacks and slaughter of 7 October, the kidnapping of innocent civilians aged from seven-month-old babies to 86-year-olds.
But with time, and the growing number of casualties – over 32,000 deaths, 75,000 wounded, over 17,000 children orphaned or separated from their parents – and with most people in Gaza displaced more than once, the international community is wondering when will this nightmare end.
Netanyahu has prioritised his hold on power and his relationship with his own extreme right, fanatical government over his duty of care to his own citizens and international diplomacy. The vast majority of Israelis know that if that relationship with the US is jeopardised, it threatens Israel losing support from the whole world and putting Israel’s security at risk. There is growing sentiment among the Israeli public that the longer Netanyahu stays in power, the greater risk their country faces.
Both Gaza and Israel’s populations are being held hostage by their governments with unrealistic goals which do not serve the needs of its citizens. The only solution is to end the war and pave a path to two states and regional peace.
Herzi Halevi, the Israel army chief of staff, and defence minister, Yoav Gallant, have announced a new “situation room” to better coordinate aid deliveries – but this is unlikely to change the conduct of the war.
Given escalation on other fronts, with attacks on Israel from Hezbollah, Houthis and Shia groups operating in Syria and Iraq, and with Israel targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon as well as senior Iranian operatives directly, it is absolutely vital to resolve the situation in Gaza without further delay.
There is less intensity of bombardments on Gaza compared to the start of the war, reservists have been withdrawn and there is talk of how to secure other border areas; this must be done through mediation and a serious international presence, not military means.
Israel is carrying out targeted attacks on Iranian targets, sending a very clear message that it will hold Tehran directly responsible for any attacks from its proxies. The recent attack on Iranian Revolutionary Guards in Damascus is a clear example of this. The risk of escalation spinning out of control is present.
The United States’ relationship with Israel has been tricky for Joe Biden, and it certainly feels like it is at a tipping point. Washington has huge leverage over Israel and now is the time to exercise it in order to reach a ceasefire. In turn, Qatar should exercise its leverage over Hamas. Qatar, Egypt and the US have been working painstakingly for six months to reach a comprehensive ceasefire and exchange of hostages, and the deal should now be sealed. Talks brokered by Qatar and Egypt offer cautious optimism and a draft ceasefire deal is now with Hamas to consider within days.
Opposition to Netanyahu has been coming from both left and right within Israel, including from his own government, and protests are growing. As this war approaches its grim six month mark, many Israelis say they are willing for any “price” to be paid to free the surviving hostages and end the war. Qatar is putting more pressure on Hamas to accept a deal.
The US has made it clear that it no longer trusts Israel’s actions in Gaza. The only way to get humanitarian aid safely in is for an immediate ceasefire, and an end to the war. Nothing else will work.
The author is associate fellow at the Chatham House International Security Programme and an expert in diplomacy and the Middle East